Assessing and Predicting the Impact of Multi-Scenario Land Use Changes on the Ecosystem Service Value: A Case Study in the Upstream of Xiong’an New Area, China

The evaluation of ecosystem service value has become the basis ecological protection, regionalization, and compensations. Land use changes have taken place due to several natural anthropogenic reasons, significantly influencing services (ESV). In this study, we used an interactive coupling model that simulates future land equivalent coefficient table method predict evaluate in upstream Xiong’an New Area 2035, quantitatively calculated impact on under four scenarios. results indicate from 2015 production scenario life decreased by CNY 1635.39 million 561.95 million, respectively, areas where ESV mainly appeared river banks surrounding towns. conversion forest cultivated grassland construction are main reasons for reduction scenario, respectively. increased 2550.59 waters is reason increase value, with a contribution rate 73.89%. Moreover, trade-off between services, overall change current not obvious. conclusion, strictly controlling scale land, strengthening management protection water resources, expanding afforestation may improve future.